Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Andreas Spang
Willie Parks
78%
22%
Why
33
Age
Δ 5y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Andreas Spang
Willie Parks
46
Sig strikes landed
45
104
Sig strikes attempted
98
65
Total strikes landed
58
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
170s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Andreas Spang
"Sweet Swede"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Age
33
Blue corner
Willie Parks
"Slick"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Age
28