Main
Welterweight
Jake Shields vs Jake Ellenberger
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
·Ernest N. Morial Convention Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jake Shields
Jake Ellenberger
60%
40%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
33
Age
Δ 6y
26
31-10-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
32-15
L1
Current streak
W4
2
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Shields: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Ellenberger: 9 sig / 0 TD
Jake Shields
Jake Ellenberger
29
Sig strikes landed
40
83
Sig strikes attempted
117
53
Total strikes landed
60
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.9
3.7
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.00
Knockdowns
0.60
97s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jake Shields
31-10-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
W4
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
32-15
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—