Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Eiji Mitsuoka
Bruno Carvalho
78%
22%
Why
36
Age
Δ 6y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 2
Mitsuoka: 14 sig / 3 TD ·
Carvalho: 9 sig / 0 TD
Eiji Mitsuoka
Bruno Carvalho
44
Sig strikes landed
48
102
Sig strikes attempted
101
61
Total strikes landed
64
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
190s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Eiji Mitsuoka
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
Blue corner
Bruno Carvalho
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Age
29