Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jeff Hougland
Donny Walker
74%
26%
Why
33
Age
Δ 1y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hougland: 61 sig / 1 TD ·
Walker: 31 sig / 0 TD
Jeff Hougland
Donny Walker
41
Sig strikes landed
43
96
Sig strikes attempted
100
54
Total strikes landed
59
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
116s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jeff Hougland
"Hellbound"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner
Donny Walker
"Eagle Eye"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Age
32