Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Lyle Beerbohm
Pat Healy
71%
29%
Why
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
25-3
Career record
Δ 31 pp
34-24
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Beerbohm: 20 sig / 2 TD ·
Healy: 47 sig / 1 TD
Lyle Beerbohm
Pat Healy
37
Sig strikes landed
31
77
Sig strikes attempted
99
52
Total strikes landed
53
1.4
Takedowns landed
2.3
3.1
Takedowns attempted
5.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.50
111s
Control time
175s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Lyle Beerbohm
"Fancy Pants"
25-3
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce - Heavy Artillery
—
Blue corner
L1
Pat Healy
"Bam Bam"
34-24
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Werdum
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 8
—