Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Erik Koch
Raphael Assuncao
49%
51%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 5"
66"
22
Age
Δ 6y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Koch: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Assuncao: 9 sig / 0 TD
Erik Koch
Raphael Assuncao
36
Sig strikes landed
33
80
Sig strikes attempted
64
52
Total strikes landed
52
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
170s
Control time
168s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Erik Koch
"Phoenix"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
Blue corner
Raphael Assuncao
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29