Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nick Diaz
Evangelista Santos
89%
11%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
28
Age
Δ 6y
33
27-10
Career record
Δ 18 pp
22-18
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Diaz: 104 sig / 0 TD ·
Santos: 72 sig / 1 TD
Nick Diaz
Evangelista Santos
70
Sig strikes landed
58
156
Sig strikes attempted
129
85
Total strikes landed
65
2.4
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
115s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Nick Diaz
27-10
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Noons 2
—
W
Strikeforce - Miami
—
Blue corner
W1
Evangelista Santos
"Cyborg"
22-18
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce - Los Angeles
—