Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Melvin Guillard
Evan Dunham
68%
32%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
33-18-2
Career record
Δ 0 pp
18-10-1
W3
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Guillard: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Dunham: 2 sig / 1 TD
Melvin Guillard
Evan Dunham
40
Sig strikes landed
38
101
Sig strikes attempted
110
54
Total strikes landed
52
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.6
0.5
Takedowns attempted
5.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
29s
Control time
177s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Melvin Guillard
"The Young Assassin"
33-18-2
(3 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
L1
Evan Dunham
18-10-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—