Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Vitor Ribeiro
Justin Wilcox
68%
32%
Why
32
Age
32
20-6
Career record
Δ 9 pp
15-7
L1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Vitor Ribeiro
Justin Wilcox
46
Sig strikes landed
38
130
Sig strikes attempted
128
54
Total strikes landed
50
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.8
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.60
140s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
85%
KO/TKO
9%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Vitor Ribeiro
"Shaolin"
20-6
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Strikeforce - Heavy Artillery
—
Blue corner
W1
Justin Wilcox
"Silverback"
15-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce Challengers 7
—