Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh Epps
JW Wright
85%
15%
Why
24
Age
Δ 11y
35
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Josh Epps
JW Wright
38
Sig strikes landed
44
94
Sig strikes attempted
86
52
Total strikes landed
88
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.7
0.6
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
139s
Control time
217s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Josh Epps
0-0
Career record
Age
24
Blue corner
JW Wright
0-0
Career record
Age
35