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Heavyweight

Josh Barnett vs Geronimo dos Santos

Impact FC 1 ·Brisbane Entertainment Centre

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Josh Barnett
Geronimo dos Santos
70% 30%
Why
33
Age
Δ 3y
30

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Barnett: 24 sig / 2 TD · dos Santos: 3 sig / 0 TD
Josh Barnett
Geronimo dos Santos
34
Sig strikes landed
34
72
Sig strikes attempted
75
52
Total strikes landed
48
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
155s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Josh Barnett

"The Warmaster"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner

Geronimo dos Santos

"Mondragon"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30