Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Demetrious Johnson
Nick Pace
89%
11%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
24
Age
Δ 1y
24
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Johnson: 46 sig / 4 TD ·
Pace: 8 sig / 0 TD
Demetrious Johnson
Nick Pace
46
Sig strikes landed
29
77
Sig strikes attempted
81
74
Total strikes landed
42
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
166s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Demetrious Johnson
"Mighty Mouse"
27-4-1
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber
—
Blue corner
Nick Pace
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24