Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Shane del Rosario
Lolohea Mahe
72%
28%
Why
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
del Rosario: 26 sig / 0 TD ·
Mahe: 5 sig / 0 TD
Shane del Rosario
Lolohea Mahe
54
Sig strikes landed
34
98
Sig strikes attempted
85
66
Total strikes landed
50
1.1
Takedowns landed
2.7
2.2
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
112s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Shane del Rosario
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
Blue corner
L1
Lolohea Mahe
10-5-1
Career record
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Strikeforce Challengers 7
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