Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Trevor Prangley
Karl Amoussou
44%
56%
Why
38
Age
Δ 13y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Could Not Continue · Round 1
Trevor Prangley
Karl Amoussou
32
Sig strikes landed
38
73
Sig strikes attempted
80
52
Total strikes landed
52
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
135s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Trevor Prangley
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
Blue corner
Karl Amoussou
"The Psycho"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24