Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
John Kelly
Sabah Homasi
62%
38%
Why
32
Age
Δ 10y
21
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
John Kelly
Sabah Homasi
45
Sig strikes landed
42
92
Sig strikes attempted
108
61
Total strikes landed
59
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
153s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
John Kelly
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Age
32
Blue corner
Sabah Homasi
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21