Back to UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
Main Heavyweight

Cain Velasquez vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez ·Qudos Bank Arena
Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Cain Velasquez
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
38% 62%
Why
77"
Reach
77"
28
Age
Δ 6y
34

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Velasquez: 23 sig / 0 TD · Nogueira: 3 sig / 0 TD
Cain Velasquez
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
33
Sig strikes landed
36
68
Sig strikes attempted
71
52
Total strikes landed
53
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
132s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Cain Velasquez

0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

"Minotauro"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34