Back to UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Marina Spasic vs Stephanie Luciano

UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez ·Belgrade Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Marina Spasic
Stephanie Luciano
45% 55%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
32
Age
Δ 6y
27
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Spasic: 25 sig / 0 TD · Luciano: 20 sig / 1 TD
Marina Spasic
Stephanie Luciano
48
Sig strikes landed
49
110
Sig strikes attempted
124
70
Total strikes landed
69
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
138s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Marina Spasic

"Maki Beki"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
W1

Stephanie Luciano

"Rondinha"
8-2-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
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