Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Arnold Allen
Melquizael Costa
54%
46%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
32
Age
Δ 3y
30
21-5
Career record
Δ 4 pp
27-8
L1
Current streak
W6
14
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Allen: 98 sig / 7 TD ·
Costa: 100 sig / 0 TD
Arnold Allen
Melquizael Costa
55
Sig strikes landed
54
125
Sig strikes attempted
124
76
Total strikes landed
65
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
140s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Arnold Allen
"Almighty"
21-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
14 fights · 11-3
Last 5
L
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
—
W
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
L
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
Blue corner
W6
Melquizael Costa
"The Dalmatian"
27-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Mora…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
—