Prelims1
Women's Bantamweight
Melissa Croden vs Daria Zhelezniakova
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott
·Canada Life Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Melissa Croden
Daria Zhelezniakova
52%
48%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
35
Age
Δ 5y
30
8-4
Career record
Δ 12 pp
11-3
L1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Croden: 69 sig / 4 TD ·
Zhelezniakova: 41 sig / 0 TD
Melissa Croden
Daria Zhelezniakova
56
Sig strikes landed
64
137
Sig strikes attempted
136
80
Total strikes landed
79
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.0
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
187s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Melissa Croden
"Scare"
8-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
—
W
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Daria Zhelezniakova
"Iron Lady"
11-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rount…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
—