Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Ricky Simon
Raoni Barcelos
60%
40%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
33
Age
Δ 5y
38
23-7-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
23-5
W2
Current streak
W3
15
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Simon: 67 sig / 0 TD ·
Barcelos: 82 sig / 1 TD
Ricky Simon
Raoni Barcelos
53
Sig strikes landed
60
105
Sig strikes attempted
111
66
Total strikes landed
87
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.4
5.1
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
144s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Ricky Simon
23-7-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
15 fights · 10-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buck…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
—
L
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
Blue corner
W3
Raoni Barcelos
23-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buck…
—
W
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—