Main
Lightweight
Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
·Farmasi Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Charles Oliveira
Mateusz Gamrot
65%
35%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
36
Age
Δ 1y
35
37-12
Career record
Δ 12 pp
27-4
L1
Current streak
W1
35
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Oliveira: 11 sig / 1 TD ·
Gamrot: 18 sig / 1 TD
Charles Oliveira
Mateusz Gamrot
20
Sig strikes landed
35
83
Sig strikes attempted
73
38
Total strikes landed
60
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.8
2.0
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
88s
Control time
263s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
46%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
37-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
35 fights · 23-11
Last 5
L
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
—
W
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
—
L
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
L
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
Blue corner
W1
Mateusz Gamrot
"Gamer"
27-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
L
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gam…
—
W
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—