Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Kaiwen
Keiichiro Nakamura
57%
43%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
16-7
Career record
Δ 20 pp
9-1
W1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kaiwen: 48 sig / 3 TD ·
Nakamura: 88 sig / 0 TD
Kaiwen
Keiichiro Nakamura
25
Sig strikes landed
27
54
Sig strikes attempted
62
23
Total strikes landed
25
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.1
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
27s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
17%
KO/TKO
71%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Kaiwen
"The Underdog"
16-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
Road to UFC 4.1 + 4.2
—
L
Road to UFC 2.7
—
W
Road to UFC 2.5 + 2.6
—
W
Road to UFC 2.1 + 2.2
—
Blue corner
W1
Keiichiro Nakamura
9-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Road to UFC 4.1 + 4.2
—