Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Rinya Nakamura
Nathan Fletcher
60%
40%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
30
Age
Δ 3y
28
10-2
Career record
Δ 14 pp
9-4
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Nakamura: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Fletcher: 3 sig / 0 TD
Rinya Nakamura
Nathan Fletcher
28
Sig strikes landed
23
51
Sig strikes attempted
47
55
Total strikes landed
47
2.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.9
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
225s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rinya Nakamura
"Hybred"
10-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
Blue corner
L1
Nathan Fletcher
9-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Br…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
—