Main
Featherweight
Muhammad Naimov vs Bogdan Grad
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr.
·Baku Crystal Hall
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Muhammad Naimov
Bogdan Grad
46%
54%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
31
Age
Δ 1y
30
14-4
Career record
Δ 2 pp
16-4
W1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Naimov: 18 sig / 1 TD ·
Grad: 31 sig / 3 TD
Muhammad Naimov
Bogdan Grad
25
Sig strikes landed
34
58
Sig strikes attempted
66
36
Total strikes landed
46
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.6
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
113s
Control time
170s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Muhammad Naimov
"Hillman"
14-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. I…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
W
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
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Blue corner
W1
Bogdan Grad
"The Unleashed"
16-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. I…
—