Main
Light Heavyweight
Dustin Jacoby vs Bruno Lopes
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Dustin Jacoby
Bruno Lopes
50%
50%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
37
Age
Δ 5y
32
23-9-1
Career record
Δ 14 pp
15-3
W1
Current streak
W1
15
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Jacoby: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Lopes: 3 sig / 0 TD
Dustin Jacoby
Bruno Lopes
57
Sig strikes landed
39
120
Sig strikes attempted
88
74
Total strikes landed
60
0.2
Takedowns landed
2.4
0.8
Takedowns attempted
7.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
58s
Control time
301s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Dustin Jacoby
"The Hanyak"
23-9-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
15 fights · 8-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
Blue corner
W1
Bruno Lopes
"The Brazilian Cowboy"
15-3
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
—