Back to UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
Prelims2 Bantamweight

Brad Katona vs Bekzat Almakhan

UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena ·Bell Centre
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Brad Katona
Bekzat Almakhan
57% 43%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
33
Age
Δ 6y
28
16-6
Career record
Δ 2 pp
12-4
L1
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Katona: 1 sig / 0 TD · Almakhan: 8 sig / 0 TD
Brad Katona
Bekzat Almakhan
43
Sig strikes landed
41
78
Sig strikes attempted
116
80
Total strikes landed
56
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.0
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
245s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Brad Katona

"Superman"
16-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. …
—
W UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
W UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
L UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
Blue corner
L1

Bekzat Almakhan

"The Turan Warrior"
12-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—