Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Brad Tavares
Gerald Meerschaert
36%
64%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
78"
37
Age
37
21-14
Career record
Δ 2 pp
37-23
L2
Current streak
L1
25
UFC fights in our DB
22
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tavares: 47 sig / 0 TD ·
Meerschaert: 38 sig / 0 TD
Brad Tavares
Gerald Meerschaert
35
Sig strikes landed
32
70
Sig strikes attempted
73
58
Total strikes landed
49
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
125s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Brad Tavares
21-14
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
25 fights · 15-10
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
L
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
Blue corner
L1
Gerald Meerschaert
"GM3"
37-23
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
22 fights · 12-10
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prat…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Ty…
—
L
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
L
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—