Main
Lightweight
Alexander Hernandez vs Kurt Holobaugh
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Alexander Hernandez
Kurt Holobaugh
60%
40%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
32
Age
Δ 6y
38
19-9
Career record
Δ 2 pp
23-10
W1
Current streak
W1
14
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hernandez: 59 sig / 4 TD ·
Holobaugh: 71 sig / 0 TD
Alexander Hernandez
Kurt Holobaugh
58
Sig strikes landed
59
139
Sig strikes attempted
121
73
Total strikes landed
76
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
85s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alexander Hernandez
"El Gran Chango"
19-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
14 fights · 7-7
Last 5
W
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Bl…
—
L
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
Blue corner
W1
Kurt Holobaugh
"The Hurt"
23-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
7 fights · 2-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jand…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
—
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
L
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—