Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nurullo Aliev
Joe Solecki
80%
20%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
24
Age
Δ 7y
31
12-0
Career record
Δ 35 pp
13-7
W1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Aliev: 35 sig / 2 TD ·
Solecki: 28 sig / 1 TD
Nurullo Aliev
Joe Solecki
18
Sig strikes landed
19
23
Sig strikes attempted
44
62
Total strikes landed
41
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
155s
Control time
193s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
44%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Nurullo Aliev
"Tajik Eagle"
12-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
—
Blue corner
L2
Joe Solecki
13-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—