Main
Middleweight
Anthony Hernandez vs Michel Pereira
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Anthony Hernandez
Michel Pereira
50%
50%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
31
Age
31
16-3
Career record
Δ 14 pp
33-14
W5
Current streak
W8
8
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 5
Hernandez: 152 sig / 10 TD ·
Pereira: 24 sig / 0 TD
Anthony Hernandez
Michel Pereira
37
Sig strikes landed
51
86
Sig strikes attempted
96
57
Total strikes landed
66
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.2
6.6
Takedowns attempted
0.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
210s
Control time
48s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Anthony Hernandez
"Fluffy"
16-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
W
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
Blue corner
W8
Michel Pereira
"Demolidor"
33-14
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
W
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Bar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
W
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—