Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Gauge Young
Quillan Salkilld
50%
50%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 5"
75"
24
Age
Δ 1y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Young: 64 sig / 0 TD ·
Salkilld: 81 sig / 9 TD
Gauge Young
Quillan Salkilld
33
Sig strikes landed
39
67
Sig strikes attempted
79
46
Total strikes landed
56
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
113s
Control time
150s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Gauge Young
"Gee Money"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner
Quillan Salkilld
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25