Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Andreas Gustafsson
Pat Pytlik
66%
34%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
73"
34
Age
Δ 2y
35
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Gustafsson: 38 sig / 2 TD ·
Pytlik: 26 sig / 0 TD
Andreas Gustafsson
Pat Pytlik
38
Sig strikes landed
34
78
Sig strikes attempted
72
56
Total strikes landed
48
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
148s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Andreas Gustafsson
"Bane"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
Blue corner
Pat Pytlik
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35