Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joshua Van
Charles Johnson
82%
18%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 5"
70"
23
Age
Δ 11y
34
18-2
Career record
Δ 19 pp
20-8
W3
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Van: 67 sig / 1 TD ·
Johnson: 88 sig / 0 TD
Joshua Van
Charles Johnson
97
Sig strikes landed
71
146
Sig strikes attempted
171
113
Total strikes landed
78
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
106s
Control time
60s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Joshua Van
"The Fearless"
18-2
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
Blue corner
W2
Charles Johnson
"InnerG"
20-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
34
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
—