Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Alex Perez
Tatsuro Taira
37%
63%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
32
Age
Δ 8y
24
27-10
Career record
Δ 18 pp
19-2
W1
Current streak
W5
11
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Perez: 41 sig / 1 TD ·
Taira: 31 sig / 2 TD
Alex Perez
Tatsuro Taira
22
Sig strikes landed
41
48
Sig strikes attempted
77
35
Total strikes landed
61
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.7
2.1
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
86s
Control time
241s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alex Perez
27-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
L
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
Blue corner
W5
Tatsuro Taira
"The Best"
19-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—