Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Stewart Nicoll
Jesus Aguilar
49%
51%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 3"
62"
28
Age
28
—
Current streak
W2
0
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Nicoll: 8 sig / 1 TD ·
Aguilar: 3 sig / 0 TD
Stewart Nicoll
Jesus Aguilar
18
Sig strikes landed
23
36
Sig strikes attempted
45
29
Total strikes landed
42
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.5
0.8
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
111s
Control time
178s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Stewart Nicoll
"Kakamora"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
W2
Jesus Aguilar
13-4
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
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W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
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L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
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