Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Gabriel Benitez
Maheshate
51%
49%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
36
Age
Δ 12y
24
23-14
Career record
Δ 0 pp
10-6
L1
Current streak
L2
14
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Benitez: 121 sig / 0 TD ·
Maheshate: 97 sig / 0 TD
Gabriel Benitez
Maheshate
46
Sig strikes landed
37
99
Sig strikes attempted
102
47
Total strikes landed
57
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.70
Knockdowns
0.30
65s
Control time
39s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
55%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Gabriel Benitez
"Moggly"
23-14
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
14 fights · 7-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
Blue corner
L2
Maheshate
10-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—