Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Tai Tuivasa
Marcin Tybura
40%
60%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
78"
31
Age
Δ 7y
38
15-11
Career record
Δ 12 pp
27-12
L3
Current streak
L1
14
UFC fights in our DB
18
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Tuivasa: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Tybura: 27 sig / 1 TD
Tai Tuivasa
Marcin Tybura
37
Sig strikes landed
48
71
Sig strikes attempted
83
50
Total strikes landed
61
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
-0.1
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
81s
Control time
175s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Tai Tuivasa
"Bam Bam"
15-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
14 fights · 8-6
Last 5
L
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
W
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
Blue corner
L1
Marcin Tybura
"Tybur"
27-12
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
18 fights · 11-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
L
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—