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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Vinicius Oliveira vs Benardo Sopaj

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Vinicius Oliveira
Benardo Sopaj
70% 30%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
28
Age
Δ 5y
23

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Oliveira: 67 sig / 2 TD · Sopaj: 45 sig / 3 TD
Vinicius Oliveira
Benardo Sopaj
40
Sig strikes landed
32
82
Sig strikes attempted
67
60
Total strikes landed
48
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
150s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Vinicius Oliveira

"LokDog"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
Blue corner

Benardo Sopaj

"Lion King"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23