Prelims1
Middleweight
Christian Leroy Duncan vs Claudio Ribeiro
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Christian Leroy Duncan
Claudio Ribeiro
76%
24%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
15-2
Career record
Δ 24 pp
11-6
W1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Duncan: 65 sig / 1 TD ·
Ribeiro: 4 sig / 0 TD
Christian Leroy Duncan
Claudio Ribeiro
38
Sig strikes landed
28
72
Sig strikes attempted
46
52
Total strikes landed
36
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
145s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Christian Leroy Duncan
"CLD"
15-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
Blue corner
L1
Claudio Ribeiro
11-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
W
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—