Back to UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan
Main Lightweight

Beneil Dariush vs Arman Tsarukyan

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Beneil Dariush
Arman Tsarukyan
31% 69%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
35
Age
Δ 8y
27
23-9-1
Career record
Δ 19 pp
24-3
L1
Current streak
W2
22
UFC fights in our DB
9

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Dariush: 2 sig / 0 TD · Tsarukyan: 8 sig / 0 TD
Beneil Dariush
Arman Tsarukyan
30
Sig strikes landed
45
70
Sig strikes attempted
89
49
Total strikes landed
84
1.3
Takedowns landed
2.2
5.4
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
146s
Control time
203s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Beneil Dariush

23-9-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database 22 fights · 16-5
Last 5
L UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
W UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
W UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
W UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
Blue corner
W2

Arman Tsarukyan

"Ahalkalakets"
24-3
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
W UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
L UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
W UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
W UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann