Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rei Tsuruya
Mark Climaco
74%
26%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
21
Age
Δ 5y
26
12-1
Career record
Δ 9 pp
10-2
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tsuruya: 23 sig / 8 TD ·
Climaco: 31 sig / 1 TD
Rei Tsuruya
Mark Climaco
47
Sig strikes landed
29
83
Sig strikes attempted
66
60
Total strikes landed
38
2.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
6.7
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
370s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
9%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Rei Tsuruya
12-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Road to UFC 2.1 + 2.2
—
Blue corner
W1
Mark Climaco
10-2
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Road to UFC 2.1 + 2.2
—