Back to UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie
Main Bantamweight

Rinya Nakamura vs Fernie Garcia

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie ·Singapore Indoor Stadium
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Rinya Nakamura
Fernie Garcia
77% 23%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
11-1
Career record
Δ 29 pp
10-6
W1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nakamura: 36 sig / 4 TD · Garcia: 15 sig / 0 TD
Rinya Nakamura
Fernie Garcia
35
Sig strikes landed
21
80
Sig strikes attempted
82
51
Total strikes landed
26
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
96s
Control time
43s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
26%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Rinya Nakamura

"Hybred"
11-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
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Blue corner
L2

Fernie Garcia

10-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
—
L UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
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