Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jafel Filho
Daniel Barez
71%
29%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
30
Age
Δ 4y
35
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Filho: 21 sig / 1 TD ·
Barez: 18 sig / 0 TD
Jafel Filho
Daniel Barez
30
Sig strikes landed
36
73
Sig strikes attempted
74
45
Total strikes landed
53
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.5
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
134s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jafel Filho
"Pastor"
17-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
Blue corner
Daniel Barez
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35