Back to UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura
Prelims1 Lightweight

Chris Duncan vs Yanal Ashmouz

UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura ·The O2 Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Chris Duncan
Yanal Ashmouz
72% 28%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
16-3
Career record
Δ 2 pp
9-2
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Duncan: 85 sig / 2 TD · Ashmouz: 35 sig / 0 TD
Chris Duncan
Yanal Ashmouz
24
Sig strikes landed
19
51
Sig strikes attempted
36
45
Total strikes landed
31
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
198s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
54%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Chris Duncan

"The Problem"
16-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
Blue corner
W1

Yanal Ashmouz

"Red Fox"
9-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—