Main
Featherweight
Josh Emmett vs Ilia Topuria
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria
·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh Emmett
Ilia Topuria
28%
72%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
38
Age
Δ 12y
26
19-8
Career record
Δ 30 pp
18-0
L1
Current streak
W5
12
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Emmett: 87 sig / 0 TD ·
Topuria: 152 sig / 3 TD
Josh Emmett
Ilia Topuria
53
Sig strikes landed
63
146
Sig strikes attempted
124
52
Total strikes landed
77
0.1
Takedowns landed
2.1
1.0
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
27s
Control time
176s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Josh Emmett
19-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
L
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—
Blue corner
W5
Ilia Topuria
"El Matador"
18-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—