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Windri Patilima vs Shin Haraguchi

Road to UFC 2.3 + 2.4 ·UFC Performance Institute Shanghai
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Windri Patilima
Shin Haraguchi
59% 41%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
68"
30
Age
Δ 5y
24

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Patilima: 2 sig / 0 TD · Haraguchi: 49 sig / 3 TD
Windri Patilima
Shin Haraguchi
37
Sig strikes landed
35
76
Sig strikes attempted
72
48
Total strikes landed
47
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
161s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Windri Patilima

0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
Blue corner

Shin Haraguchi

0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Switch
Age
25