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Main Flyweight

Rei Tsuruya vs Ronal Siahaan

Road to UFC 2.1 + 2.2 ·UFC Performance Institute Shanghai
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Rei Tsuruya
Ronal Siahaan
74% 26%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
21
Age
Δ 6y
27

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Tsuruya: 39 sig / 3 TD · Siahaan: 4 sig / 0 TD
Rei Tsuruya
Ronal Siahaan
36
Sig strikes landed
36
73
Sig strikes attempted
74
54
Total strikes landed
48
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.2
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
160s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Rei Tsuruya

0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
Blue corner

Ronal Siahaan

"Naga Sakti"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27