Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Derrick Lewis
Serghei Spivac
49%
51%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
38
Age
Δ 10y
28
29-14
Career record
Δ 9 pp
19-6
L2
Current streak
W2
25
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Lewis: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Spivac: 12 sig / 6 TD
Derrick Lewis
Serghei Spivac
22
Sig strikes landed
33
41
Sig strikes attempted
62
34
Total strikes landed
49
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
54s
Control time
175s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
29-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
25 fights · 17-8
Last 5
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
L
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
L
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
Blue corner
W2
Serghei Spivac
"Polar Bear"
19-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—