Prelims1
Welterweight
Carlston Harris vs Jared Gooden
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili
·The Theater at Virgin Hotels Las Vegas
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Carlston Harris
Jared Gooden
39%
61%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
77"
36
Age
Δ 6y
29
19-9
Career record
Δ 0 pp
23-11
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Harris: 63 sig / 5 TD ·
Gooden: 51 sig / 0 TD
Carlston Harris
Jared Gooden
43
Sig strikes landed
37
105
Sig strikes attempted
87
62
Total strikes landed
56
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.2
3.4
Takedowns attempted
-0.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
138s
Control time
41s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Carlston Harris
"Mocambique"
19-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1
Jared Gooden
"NiteTrain"
23-11
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Stric…
—
L
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—