Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Saimon Oliveira
Daniel Marcos
40%
60%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
69"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Oliveira: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Marcos: 53 sig / 0 TD
Saimon Oliveira
Daniel Marcos
36
Sig strikes landed
47
75
Sig strikes attempted
97
48
Total strikes landed
63
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
62s
Control time
166s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Saimon Oliveira
18-8
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
Blue corner
Daniel Marcos
"Soncora"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30